..
..Clearly; there is at least a "correction" going on right now..>> and my mutual funds in my 401k have given up about half their gains of the last quarter..
I look at this year as an inverse of other years; instead of a "summer rally"; this is a "summer correction"; with a flight to quality.
Still, there is just too much; "buying opportunity" talk to make me think this is going to be just a small adjustment...>>..but; is this a true reversal of a powerfull bull 5th wave?? Financial concerns rule the u.s. equity markets; trumping economic issues; generally speaking; imho. There is still the overhang of the "housing bubble", movement away from u.s. dollar as key international trade vehicle, and continued high commodity pricing; as redistribution of scarce resources continues away from u.s.a.
But; as a true believer in 8's..>>lol; the years ending in 8 have been kind to equities; along with the 3rd year presidential cycle..>> i say we return to continued highs of major u.s. indices within a month; dow to about 15,500; S&P to 1630 ; nasdaq to 2900 by end of 2007.
jmho
gl..
summing up; i do not feel the bears will gain control until 2009..
gl
:think2: :ughhh: :hump:
..Clearly; there is at least a "correction" going on right now..>> and my mutual funds in my 401k have given up about half their gains of the last quarter..
I look at this year as an inverse of other years; instead of a "summer rally"; this is a "summer correction"; with a flight to quality.
Still, there is just too much; "buying opportunity" talk to make me think this is going to be just a small adjustment...>>..but; is this a true reversal of a powerfull bull 5th wave?? Financial concerns rule the u.s. equity markets; trumping economic issues; generally speaking; imho. There is still the overhang of the "housing bubble", movement away from u.s. dollar as key international trade vehicle, and continued high commodity pricing; as redistribution of scarce resources continues away from u.s.a.
But; as a true believer in 8's..>>lol; the years ending in 8 have been kind to equities; along with the 3rd year presidential cycle..>> i say we return to continued highs of major u.s. indices within a month; dow to about 15,500; S&P to 1630 ; nasdaq to 2900 by end of 2007.
jmho
gl..
summing up; i do not feel the bears will gain control until 2009..
gl
:think2: :ughhh: :hump:
I've been accumulating cash since the first of the year
I think we see a 5-10% correction this summer...not 100% sure of the catalyst but likely a correction in china, unwinding of the yen carry trade, or another round of subprime meltdowns or a combination. The economy is indeed slowing, and likely in a recession right now.
I believe the fed will use this as an excuse to cut rates before the end of the year. After that happens it is off to the races again. Think the DOW may be at 15,000 next summer due to all the extra liquidity (main reason for the highs of late) - of course that scenario is very bullish for Precious metals. FWIW I have not and will not sell any PM stocks or physical. In fact bought more gold and junk silver today...but I do think PM's will correct along with the broader markets. May see $600 Gold soon. Predicting $800 gold and $75-$80 oil by next summer.:smoking:
I think we see a 5-10% correction this summer...not 100% sure of the catalyst but likely a correction in china, unwinding of the yen carry trade, or another round of subprime meltdowns or a combination. The economy is indeed slowing, and likely in a recession right now.
I believe the fed will use this as an excuse to cut rates before the end of the year. After that happens it is off to the races again. Think the DOW may be at 15,000 next summer due to all the extra liquidity (main reason for the highs of late) - of course that scenario is very bullish for Precious metals. FWIW I have not and will not sell any PM stocks or physical. In fact bought more gold and junk silver today...but I do think PM's will correct along with the broader markets. May see $600 Gold soon. Predicting $800 gold and $75-$80 oil by next summer.:smoking:
WOOF Put me down as BEAR...i think we see a 10% correction into Sept....I DO NOT think Ben cuts rates this July......as the market continues its slide into fall....we may then see at drop in rates, but i am even worried that we will not see it at that point......I am also taking profits from my overvalued stocks and putting them into PM and forign currency......WOOF would is your position on interest rates...you see a cut coming OR a hike??? Inflation seems to be gaining some talk....
some facts from bear stearns..>>>
In U.S.A:
Household net worth grew by 587 billion 1st Quarter this year.
U.S. Households have 29.1 trillion in net financial assets; more than the entire rest of the world combined; but with home and business equity added; U.S. has $50 trillion in assets..>>
Household LIQUID assets are at record $21 trillion...
So, growl away bears; you're gonna get trampled by a bull avalanche; might be in a couple a months after a 8-10 % correction; but there is too much power here to be denied.
jmho
Additional stock pik: not necessarily technically the best time to buy (stock is technically weak imho):
ENER $31/sh..> a double green energy play with both batteries and cost effective solar cells..
Not a recommendation; do your own due diligence..!!
gl
:money8:
In U.S.A:
Household net worth grew by 587 billion 1st Quarter this year.
U.S. Households have 29.1 trillion in net financial assets; more than the entire rest of the world combined; but with home and business equity added; U.S. has $50 trillion in assets..>>
Household LIQUID assets are at record $21 trillion...
So, growl away bears; you're gonna get trampled by a bull avalanche; might be in a couple a months after a 8-10 % correction; but there is too much power here to be denied.
jmho
Additional stock pik: not necessarily technically the best time to buy (stock is technically weak imho):
ENER $31/sh..> a double green energy play with both batteries and cost effective solar cells..
Not a recommendation; do your own due diligence..!!
gl
:money8:
Joe, eventhough market has rallied most of today, Bidu is still lower than it was at todays opening price.
MCO falling nicely.
Adding a couple more mortgage related stocks to the short list.
MTG & PMI
Only Bidu is a daytrade and will be covered sometime this afternoon...these others Im planning to hold until they fall further later this summer.
MCO falling nicely.
Adding a couple more mortgage related stocks to the short list.
MTG & PMI
Only Bidu is a daytrade and will be covered sometime this afternoon...these others Im planning to hold until they fall further later this summer.
Hitman, I dont have any trade with nyx, but I certainly wouldnt buy it right now since its in a downtrend.
Biggest problem with a stock like that is it would get killed if we had some type of domestic terrorism...be careful.
A stock I have been accumulating on long side is FCSX....a pure commodity play without having risk of terrorism from owning stocks like CME (which I sold to buy FCSX).
MCO has been cooking its books via relying too much on these subprime and other mortgage lenders. Its going to be forced to change ratings on those companies.
Biggest problem with a stock like that is it would get killed if we had some type of domestic terrorism...be careful.
A stock I have been accumulating on long side is FCSX....a pure commodity play without having risk of terrorism from owning stocks like CME (which I sold to buy FCSX).
MCO has been cooking its books via relying too much on these subprime and other mortgage lenders. Its going to be forced to change ratings on those companies.
Been cold lately, but 4-4 today and all were were pretty decent moves.
Covered the Bidu short position with a decent gain there also after letting the morning down move get away from me.
Covered half the PMI & MTG and going to sit in other half.
Going to sit in all the MCO as I think we have potential whale drop with this one.
Covered the Bidu short position with a decent gain there also after letting the morning down move get away from me.
Covered half the PMI & MTG and going to sit in other half.
Going to sit in all the MCO as I think we have potential whale drop with this one.
does take alot of balls to be short in this market the way it is being propped up.
Anybody play with SRS? - an ultra-short RE fund. I held for a few months for a small gain, but I cashed out way too soon in April. Recent gains have been spectacular. I sold more to free up some cash and am not a big shorter. Fund is still solid for another year at least.
Anybody play with SRS? - an ultra-short RE fund. I held for a few months for a small gain, but I cashed out way too soon in April. Recent gains have been spectacular. I sold more to free up some cash and am not a big shorter. Fund is still solid for another year at least.
